Regardless of the results of Wednesday's World Cup qualifier, Graham Arnold is widely tipped to lose his job
Whatever happens tonight in the match between Saudi Arabia and Australia, the common view amongst many pundits is that the Socceroos coach Graham Arnold is “gone”.
It also seems apparent from the various media reports in recent weeks, as well as Football Australia CEO, James Johnson's, response to a question I posed at the end of the Football Writers' Festival on Sunday.
Johnson requested Chatham House Rules which is his prerogative to do so - though hardly best practice in terms of transparency and accountability - so I cannot share the response. But here is the question.
“At the end of the 2018 World Cup, the Socceroos were ranked 32nd in the world; today, they are 37th. At the end of the 2019 World Cup, the Matildas were ranked 8th in the world; today they are 12th. That is a 15% decline in the international rankings for the Socceroos, but a 50% - five-oh - for the Matildas. If Australia was not co-hosting the 2023 World Cup, the Matildas would have a chance of making a play-off spot. The Socceroos are definitely in a play-off spot for Qatar 2022. Yet, your organisation is widely perceived to be backgrounding against Graham Arnold, while Tony Gustavsson - who isn't in the country - is untouchable. How do you explain that?”
It was a valid, reasonable and empirically-based question.
Johnson quickly pointed out that Gustavsson was in the country and, sure enough, a photo was produced on social media of Gustavsson and the ubiquitous Sarah Walsh enjoying the A-League W Grand Final together. But it really wasn't the main point.
It’s a tight contest in the @aleaguewomen grand final.
Enjoying the clash is our Head Coach, Tony Gustavsson and former Matilda @swalshy9. pic.twitter.com/LSQeEa1wKD
— CommBank Matildas (@TheMatildas) March 27, 2022
The logical conclusion that most in the audience drew from what he said - or, more to the point, didn't say - is that Graham Arnold is a dead man walking.
Arnold has had to navigate a pathway through the Covid pandemic with a bunch of players who, while most do not doubt their commitment and love for their country, do not player in the highest leagues in the world. Amongst the Socceroos, no players are in England's top tier. Amongst those playing in European top tier competitions, such as Mat Ryan (Spain), Ajdin Hrustic (Germany), Fran Karacic (Italy), only Karacic plays regularly for his side, Brescia.
Gustavsson has had a relatively simple ride, safe in the knowledge that we are guaranteed a spot as co-hosts, with a squad that is rich in high-level talent playing in the best leagues in the world and who continued to be paid under their Matildas contracts during the Covid pandemic when so many Australians were stuggling. In the 23-player squad announced today by Gustavsson, nine of the players (40%) play in England's top tier, four (17%) in Australia, and the rest are spread amongst France, Scandinavia, Italy and USA top tiers - all stronger leagues than the A-League Women's competition.
Regardless of the result between Saudi Arabia and Australia in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Graham Arnold is highly unlikely to be the coach of the Socceroos for the two do-or-die World Cup qualifiers in Doha against the other third placed Asian side (currently the UAE) and, if we win that, against the fifth placed South American side (currently Peru).
The fact that we are apparently changing courses for the third consecutive men's World Cup says as much about the elite player development and pathways since this crop of Socceroos were children starting out playing the game in the early 2000s, than it does about the head coach. The game's leaders have failed them with successive poor and short-sighted decisions that have, in essence, thrown out the baby with the bath water and failed to significantly expand the talent pool or get the best out of them.
Nonethless, we fans remain optimistic and supportive. Always. #GoSocceroos. #GoMatildas.